At the time of writing, it’s been 976 days since the world became aware of the viral phenomenon called ChatGPT based on the GPT-3.5 architecture. A few months later, GPT-4 launched, blowing the original out of the water.
People were stunned by the rate of progress. Ever since this back to back launch, many have wondered when the next iteration would be revealed, and how intelligent it would be. Rumors began to swirl, some saying that a behemoth model, GPT-5, was already underway and would launch shortly after GPT-4. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, denied these rumors declaring GPT-5 wouldn’t be trained for some time.
The public sentiment at the time was that he wasn’t telling the truth.
Turns out he was since OpenAI launched GPT-4o in the meantime. More models followed.
GPT-4o: May 2024
o1: September 2024
GPT-4.5 : February 2024
o3 : April 2025
But this didn’t stop the rumor mill.
Now the sentiment is that GPT-5 is coming rather soon. Some saying this week, some say maybe not. Impressive mysterious models appeared in the lmarena.
Perhaps GPT-5 is right around the corner. Perhaps it isn’t. OpenAI will doubtless hype up its arrival with much fanfare.
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@No_uh imo this is a bad trade (assuming you are just copying poly and don't have an opinion ab the prob being lower) bc the margin is small and your expected number of fills before polymarket updates past 90% is not that high but at any point polymarket could jump to like 95% and then you'd just be taken unless you are tracking polymarket movement closely
@Bayesian I am not tracking poly closely, but even if they jumped to 95% by 10th, 5% differrnce between two days one after the other seems fine to me i guess idk. one is a saturday but whatever man.
my more concrete reason to bet NO is to i think the hype is probably just a bit too much for me to accept the prob is higher than 90% with the lack of concrete statements (or at least that ive seen) by now.
