Will July 10th be the hottest day in Jul 2024?

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Ṁ6224

resolved Jul 24

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Must be the sole high daily temperature record for the month of July 2024 (no ties accepted) for this question to resolve YES.

Resolves primarily to:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/era5_world_t2_day.json

since it has 3 decimal digits.

Will likely resolve sometime in early-mid August; will resolve early (as soon as the product becomes available).

If the JSON data above for up to July 31 is unavailable by August 21 (usually it is not so far behind), this question will resolve to the the source at https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv (which has 2 decimal digits) and is usually only about 3 days behind or so.

Edit: Will resolve early (immediately) if for instance, July 10 is found to be cooler than any other day in July 2024.

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July 10 is reported as 16.881 C in https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/era5_world_t2_day.json

All previous days in July were lower than this value.

Thus, if no day's future value in July this month is >= 16.881, this will resolve YES.

This question can now resolve NO: 16.895 C - July 17's temperature breaks it (and will likely continually be broken by these last few days temps)

What's the climatological expectation for the hottest day? I'd naively expect it to be at some point in July, but not sure when

Even if you fix the data set source (like ERA5) I wonder how many different days you would get an answer to that question choosing different slices of time periods to average over.

Anyway, the most recent 30 years (ERA5) is around the end of July.

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