Extended forecast question. ~2 week bins. (First bin is 15 days)
Resolves to AST timezone (UTC - 4 hours) per NHC advisories.
The last answer is phrased so this question will definitively resolve by December 1, 2024.
This will count even if it is only a Subtropical Storm as the spirit of the question is whether we will get a named storm.
1,000
3.00Subtropical storm Patty forms.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/020854.shtml
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring over the
northern Atlantic has gradually acquired subtropical characteristics
during the past 12-24 h. The low has become detached from fronts and
has a shallow warm-core structure, though it remains within a cooler
airmass behind a cold front over the eastern Atlantic. Despite SSTs
around 21 deg C, instability aloft has allowed the system to sustain
some moderate convection that wraps most of the way around its
center in geostationary and passive microwave images. Since the
wind field is asymmetric and the system remains co-located with an
upper-level low, it seems best classified as a subtropical cyclone,
which is consistent with ST2.5 classifications from TAFB. Thus, the
NHC is initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty. Earlier
partial scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds in the southern
semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt since it does
not appear the strongest winds were sampled by the instrument.AL, 96, 202411011800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 4050N, 3640W, , 2, 35, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, SS, VI, 3, 2525 /////, , , MET10, CSC, S,
AL, 96, 202411012100, 10, DVTS, CI, , 4050N, 3590W, , 2, 35, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EA, I, 3, 2525 /////, , , MET10, CSC, S,
AL, 96, 202411020000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 4050N, 3530W, , 2, 35, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, ERA, I, 3, 2525 /////, , , MET10, CSC, S, Now have 6 hours of subjective fixes indicating a subtropical storm west of the Azores, which the NHC TWO gives 50% in 48 hours/7days. NHC has the potential Caribbean distubance at 40% in 48 hours, 80% in 7 days.
It doesn't look particularly likely but we might end up with another Nadine/Oscar repeat where we get two named storms tomorrow...