EP98 is given 70%/90% of a TC by the TWO.

Image/RVOR Analysis (CIMSS):

GGL/12Z is on board as well (100% of members a TS by end of 25th).

Now a TD, expected to become a TS today/tomorrow from the forecast, and forecast to become a major hurricane.

WTPZ42 KNHC 241437
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
900 AM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized with the area 
of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring well offshore of 
southern Mexico. In addition, 0807 UTC AMSR-2 passive microwave 
images indicate the system has a closed low-level circulation with 
good definition. The current satellite presentation suggests it 
could be dealing with some northeasterly shear, with deep convection 
mostly west and southwest of the estimated center position. Since 
this system meets tropical cyclone criteria, we are initiating 
advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity 
of 30 kt based on a T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Some 
scatterometer data expected later today should help refine the 
center position and intensity estimates.

The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but 
this is somewhat uncertain since the depression just formed. The 
system should maintain a west-northwestward or northwestward heading 
during the next several days with a ridge entrenched to its north 
and northeast. Overall, the track model guidance is tightly 
clustered with limited cross-track spread. There are more 
differences in the along-track direction, with the Google Deep Mind 
ensemble mean significantly faster than the rest of the models. The 
first NHC track forecast uses a consensus approach and generally 
falls between the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.

Generally weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, very warm SSTs around 
30C, and a strongly divergent upper-level environment are likely to 
support steady to rapid intensification (RI) during the next few 
days. The bulk of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with 
strengthening, particularly in the 24-72 h window when the shear 
falls below 10 kt. The DTOPS shows a 76 percent chance of a 65-kt 
increase in 72 h, and more than 60 percent of the Google Deep Mind 
ensemble members show the system becoming a major hurricane. The 
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI between 36-72 h and has 
it reaching major hurricane status early next week, in agreement 
with the simple consensus (IVCN) and slightly below the HCCA aid. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z  9.0N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z  9.3N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 10.5N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 11.7N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 12.9N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 14.0N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 15.3N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 17.2N 115.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

latest tcvitals bumped it up to TS intensity, so likely will be classified in next couple hours ( 21Z )

TS Genevieve formed with the July 24/21Z advisory:

WTPZ42 KNHC 242037
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
300 PM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
GOES-18 RGB composite imagery and a 1606 UTC METOP-B scatterometer
overpass indicate that the cloud pattern has become better
organized and the surface circulation is better defined.  Deep
convective coverage continues to expand, and a developing curved
band wraps halfway around the center.  The ASCAT data (which showed
35-38 kt believable surface vector winds) and the TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5 support 35-40 kt. However, 
Dvorak rules prevent a reasonable T3.0 (45 kt) classification. Based
on these data, the depression has been upgraded to a 40-kt Tropical
Storm Genevieve.
 
The global model forecast soundings indicate modest 
west-northwesterly shear is undercutting the lighter diffluent flow 
above 250 mb, and appears to be impinging on the northeast quadrant 
of the convective mass.  The SHIPS and the global model fields 
suggest, however, that the shear will diminish during the next 12 
hours.  The latest NOAA AOML ocean analysis indicates that 
Genevieve will be traversing a region of very high tropical cyclone 
ocean heat potential within the next 36 hrs or so.  As a result, 
various rapid intensification techniques and the Google DeepMind 
(GDM) ensemble continue to predict a high probability that 
Genevieve will undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI) by 
mid-period.  Accordingly, the official intensity forecast continues 
to reflect RI between 24 and 48 hours and Genevieve becoming a major 
hurricane early next week, using a blend of the HFIP HCCA corrected 
consensus and the GDM.
 
Genevieve's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 290/11 kt while being steered by mid-tropospheric high pressure
anchored over northwestern Mexico. The bulk of the models remain in
good agreement with a continued west-northwest heading through the
period, and the NHC forecast follows suit, while lying closely to
the HCCA consensus and the GDM ensemble mean.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z  9.2N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z  9.9N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 11.2N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 12.4N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 13.5N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 14.8N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 16.1N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 19.4N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts