Special:

The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E (formerly EP91), located south of southern Mexico at 9:00 AM CST (1500 UTC).

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EP91 was given 90%/90% of forming a TC for the 12Z TWO. EP92 was given 70%/70%.

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(Eyecandy) Overpass of NW circulation and broader view of EP91 from ISS at 14Z (SEN), and Geocolor (CIRA) from GOES at same time. Oceansat3 scatterometer data from earlier this morning via CIMSS.

Synthetic 37GHz (CIRA)

EP91 forecast to become a TS before landfall

WTPZ42 KNHC 071457
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022026
900 AM CST Sun Jun 07 2026
 
The area of low pressure to the south of Acapulco, Mexico, has been 
gradually becoming better organized with some bands of deep 
convection forming. An OSCAT overpass from several hours ago 
revealed a fairly well-defined closed circulation, and the Dvorak 
satellite classification is T1.5.  Advisories are being initiated 
on the second tropical cyclone of the eastern North Pacific season. 
The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt.

The depression has been moving slowly northeastward and the initial 
motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/5 kt.  The system is on the west 
side of a subtropical ridge and is also embedded within a broad 
low-level cyclonic gyre.  Within this steering environment, the 
cyclone should turn northward and move to the coastline within the 
next day or so.  The official forecast is a blend of the corrected 
consensus, HCCA, guidance and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
solution.

The system is over very warm waters with fairly weak vertical wind 
shear, although the upper-level outflow is slightly restricted to 
the west.  Therefore some strengthening is likely, however the 
broad inner core of the cyclone makes rapid intensification 
unlikely before landfall.  The official forecast is close to the 
model consensus.  Since the forecast calls for the depression to 
become a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, a tropical storm 
warning has been issued for a portion of the southern coast of 
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-E will 
impact portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall is likely to 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of 
southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and 
continue into Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 15.5N  99.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.8N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.6N  99.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 17.7N  99.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch