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MANIFOLD
What will be the maximum intensity of Hurricane Erick (EP)?
26
Ṁ1kṀ26k
resolved Jun 20
100%98.2%
Cat. 4
0.3%
Tropical Storm
0.4%
Cat. 1
0.3%
Cat. 2
0.5%
Cat. 3
0.3%
Cat. 5

Resolves to NHC advisories (operational intensity).

Resolves when NHC issues final advisory for system (or on reaching cat. 5).

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Landfall as Cat3, and likely to dissipate by EOD or tomorrow.

@SwedHouse This question will likely resolve around then or shortly after.

RI was forecast but I don't think the amount was quite predicted correctly:

70kt inrease in 24 hours. (55 kt to 125 kt)

sold Ṁ9 YES

@parhizj sounds good! Thanks for creating this market, it was a fun one 🫡

Cat4:

Has reached category 3

bought Ṁ200 YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/weather/hurricane-erick-mexico.html

"Mexico: Hurricane Erick reaches category 2 as landfall nears"

bought Ṁ30 YES

Was betting conservatively based on models and then I actually looked at the storm...I think models are underestimating this one

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