Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2023 >= 4,900 km^3
closes Oct 1

Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3?


The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 4.900 in the .csv file equals 4,900 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 4.900 in the csv file for September 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 4.900 will resolve NO).


Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."

Resolution Timeframe:

This market will close on October 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for September 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of September 2023 is not available for download by October 21, 2023 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.


Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).

A few references for general knowledge:


[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:

[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):

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Scott Supak

Picked a good number for the over/under!