Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3?

Criteria:

The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 4.900 in the .csv file equals 4,900 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 4.900 in the csv file for September 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 4.900 will resolve NO).

Motivation:

Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."

Resolution Timeframe:

This market will close on October 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for September 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of September 2023 is not available for download by October 21, 2023 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.

Comments:

Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).

A few references for general knowledge:

[1] PIOMAS:

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:

https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):

https://www.arcus.org/sipn

Arctic: Sea-Ice Thickness/Volume

My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Climate Change Indicators Climate model projections compared to observations in the Arctic Global Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Polar Climate Change Figures Climate Viz of the Month My…