Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2023 >= 4,900 km^3
10
closes Oct 1
69%
chance

Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3?

Criteria:

The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 4,900 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 4.900 in the .csv file equals 4,900 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 4.900 in the csv file for September 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 4.900 will resolve NO).

Motivation:

Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."

Resolution Timeframe:

This market will close on October 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for September 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of September 2023 is not available for download by October 21, 2023 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.

Comments:

Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).

A few references for general knowledge:

[1] PIOMAS:

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:

https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):

https://www.arcus.org/sipn

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will September 2023 be the hottest September on record?
Duncn avatarDuncn
98% chance
Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
StevenK avatarSteven
68% chance
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
95% chance
What will be the average monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa Observatory in August 2023?
GN19 avatarGN19
420
Arctic sea ice extent will reach a new record low in 2023
ThatGuy avatarThatGuy
2% chance
Will California break the record for it's wettest year in the 2022-2023 season?
ShaneBo avatarShane Bo
17% chance
Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?
Will the UK outright maximum temperature record be broken in 2023?
TomFinnie avatarTom Finnie
2% chance
Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in November 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?
What will be NASA's global land-ocean annual temperature anomaly for 2023?
(M1000 subsidy) Will the Arctic fully melt before the year 2050?
bohaska avatarBohaska
54% chance
Will Paris temperature exceed 30°C (86F) in October 2023?
figo avatarFigo
37% chance
Resolves PROB=(Gisstemp global mean LOTI anomaly vs 1951-80 for July+Aug+Sept 2023 -270)
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
Will October 2023 be the hottest October on record?
Duncn avatarDuncn
81% chance
Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade
vincentpearce avatarvincent pearce
60% chance
Will the ocean surface temperature (SST) record set in August 2023 be exceeded in the next year?
Thomas42 avatarThomas M
63% chance
Pays 10% for each 0.01C 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.05C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?
RobinFoster avatarRobin Foster
34% chance
will 2030 be hotter than 2023?
6 avatarScooby Doo
60% chance
Sort by:
ScottSupak avatar
Scott Supak

Picked a good number for the over/under!