Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
22
1kṀ1728
2026
32%
chance

The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation.

This market will resolve as true if Jane Street is found to have been involved in market manipulation by the Indian authorities. It will also resolve as true if Jane Street arrives at a settlement paying more than $100M without acknowledging any wrongdoing.

Some press coverage:

https://www.ft.com/content/41c4789a-afa6-462c-a6ea-9704c2ba78a7

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/india-bars-jane-street-from-accessing-its-securities-market

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/india-cracks-down-on-jane-streets-lucrative-derivatives-trades-b59b0c17

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Quoting from Alexander Gerko, the CEO of XTX:

Let's see, we have "basic index arbitrage trading" where one leg is 10x smaller than the other AND always loses money. They are taking us for fools! And it's working on some people.

He also has a longer take as well.

Matt Levine has written today that:

I don’t know what happened here, but judging by SEBI’s own chosen example, it looks like Jane Street was making markets more efficient and benefiting, rather than harming, retail traders. Instead of paying a 1.6% premium to buy stocks in the options market, they could pay a zero-ish premium; Jane Street pushed the options prices down and closed the arbitrage.

bought Ṁ50 NO

context for No: have lived in India and am kinda familiar with their approach re this

@typeofemale Is your prediction that they will settle for less than $100M?

@Lorenzo ya

look at the vodafone hutchison thing

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy