The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation.
This market will resolve as true if Jane Street is found to have been involved in market manipulation by the Indian authorities. It will also resolve as true if Jane Street arrives at a settlement paying more than $100M without acknowledging any wrongdoing.
Some press coverage:
https://www.ft.com/content/41c4789a-afa6-462c-a6ea-9704c2ba78a7
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Matt Levine has written today that:
I don’t know what happened here, but judging by SEBI’s own chosen example, it looks like Jane Street was making markets more efficient and benefiting, rather than harming, retail traders. Instead of paying a 1.6% premium to buy stocks in the options market, they could pay a zero-ish premium; Jane Street pushed the options prices down and closed the arbitrage.