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a bit impatient its been a day lol

@owenc333

hope im not jumping the gun

@owenc333, please pay attention when resolving that according to the official release of the MEGA, the jackpot has been increased to $1.35 billion ($659.5 million cash). If true, then IMHO, your question couldn't be resolved to YES because you put "$1.25 billion" as a condition without any remarks.

https://www.megamillions.com/News/2023/Jackpot-Estimate-Increased-to-$1-35-Billion!.aspx

Mega Millions

Mega Millions is one of America's two big jackpot games, and the only one with Match 5 prizes up to $5 million (with the optional Megaplier).

@DSh the 1.25b jackpot is a strict subset of the 1.35b sum, disregard literal minded trolls

@jgyou I see you've made a scientific discovery. But even in that way, 1.35 is not a strict subset of 1.25, so there is no chance this question resolves to "YES"! ))

Get your applied probability books out: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-mega-millions-125-billion-c660b88a95dd

Will the Mega Millions $1.25 billion jackpot be won by more than one ticket holder on Friday, 8/4?

50% chance.

@jgyou it's now 1.35 billion, so the question about 1,25B couldn't resolve to YES anyway! https://www.megamillions.com/News/2023/Jackpot-Estimate-Increased-to-$1-35-Billion!.aspx

Mega Millions

Mega Millions is one of America's two big jackpot games, and the only one with Match 5 prizes up to $5 million (with the optional Megaplier).

People betting no; how many tickets do you think will be sold?
Unlike 99% of market, this one is basic maths.

@jgyou A lot. The answer is a lot of tickets.

@LBeesley so at 20% you think it is going to be less than 70M?

@jgyou If the probability of even one jackpot winner isn’t 1, I’m going to treat this like an episode of Howie Mandel’s show and go, NO DEAL, HOWIE!!!