What Color Will The 2024 Kentucky Derby Winning Horse Be?
77
2k
แน€4.2k
resolved May 4
100%60%
Bay
9%
Chestnut
22%
Dark Bay/Brown
5%
Black
1.8%
White
2%
Gray/Roan
0.2%Other

The question will be verified with results published at Equibase.com. In a dead heat, more than one answer may be correct.

The question will close at the originally scheduled post time for the race. The anticipated question resolution time is no later than 10:00 PM CT if not earlier.

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€2,170
2แน€972
3แน€827
4แน€625
5แน€528
Sort by:

Thanks for the tip

Check out the companion question for the Kentucky Oaks

https://manifold.markets/ovals/what-color-will-the-2024-kentucky-o

Bay
bought แน€317 Bay YES

@Botlab

Draw my rhymes like a bow
Shoot 'em out like an arrow
Swooping' on suckers like an eagle not a sparrow
I'm walkin' a wide path
I never ever walk it narrow

sold แน€70 of Black NO

I randomly stumbled on this market and looking at the graph, I feel like something is going very wrong here.

Either people don't know how to use manifold and making their bets way too confidently, which means they will lose too much money on average. You should be careful to not push an option too far up or down unless you are very confident, because bets at the extremes are increasingly unprofitable.

Or maybe there is some unspoken disagreement which colors the horses are. Is there a list that says which horse is which color?? otherwise it seems super subjective whether a horse will e.g. count as white or gray. I'm not a horse guy, but there's probably some horses which are right in the middle between chestnut and bay color. That's just asking for trouble with the eventual resolution of this market.

@Agh I think this is mostly a case of @notrickspringfield throwing away his mana into bad bets in the last few days

@Agh

The last bay to win the Kentucky Derby โ€“ Authentic, 2020

The last chestnut to win the Kentucky Derby โ€“ Rich Strike, 2022

The last dark bay/brown to win the Kentucky Derby โ€“ Always Dreaming, 2017

The last gray/roan to win the Kentucky Derby โ€“ Giacomo, 2005

The last black to win the Kentucky Derby โ€“ Flying Ebony 1925

White Thoroughbreds are rare, and not a single one has won the Kentucky Derby.

That could change in 2024 if Amante Bianco enters the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

@agh @TheBayesian

This graph could mirror my meth consumption tbh

Sometimes the crystal really is a crystal ball lol

@Agh They list the color of the horse. It's official

This cocksucker gon win this year

boughtแน€56Bay YES
Comment hidden

More related questions