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The polling average updates several times a day. (Currently +3.5 as of 8/29 8:36pm ET.) Will you be checking the polling average at specific time on Sep 5? And is +3.5 the baseline?

@howahlah 8/29 average has been +3.5, so I will use that as the baseline. I will resolve this dependent on the average at the end of the day ET.

Why n/a if no change? That seems equally likely and valid

I see where you're coming from. Changed "no change" to NO as question is about yes/no about an increase. Same lead would not be an increase, would resolve no. Thank you!

Easiest trade ever. She has been ahead in national polling since she anounced her candidacy. Currently she is up by +3.4 and her lead continues to grow. It would take something very drastic for her to trail in the national polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

It says INCREASE in lead