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MANIFOLD
Will the House of Representatives impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the 118th Congress?
60
Ṁ965Ṁ51k
resolved Feb 14
Resolved
YES

Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-the-house-of-representatives-i, but by January 3, 2025. Original resolution criteria below:

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Context: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/

This market will resolve YES if the House of Representatives passes a resolution impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas before the end of [the 118th Congress] (whether or not the Senate takes any particular action on the impeachment).

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This can be resolved as "YES".

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 65% order

^^^

bought Ṁ100 NO

I know people are betting this up because Republicans could try again, but what makes people so sure it will succeed if they failed the first time?

@PlasmaBallin the writers are bringing back a side character to rescue them against all odds (steve scalise)

@SemioticRivalry Yeah, except if Dean Phillips comes back (lol) that doesn't help, nor does it help if a Dem is elected to Santos' seat in like a week.

I mean, maybe this is over 50%, but I think just barely.

@Najawin phillips voted in the tied vote, and the ny-3 winner won't be seated for weeks

sold Ṁ34 NO

Always sell at the bottom

many such cases!

opened a Ṁ200 YES at 12% order

and it all comes circling back

I'm not trading in my own market here, but I do think that 10% is too low. They're promising to try this vote again.

LOL

@SirCryptomind the market can't resolve yet; they can try again and have said they intend to.

@octothorpe Oh I didnt say it could resolve, I know there is another possible vote. I was just tagging news.

yikes, totally misread that. 💸

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 12% order

they literally wheeled in Al Green to tie the vote. incredible