This market will resolve YES if, by the beginning of the day on July 1, 2023, instruments of ratification have been deposited by all parties to the Protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949 on the Accession of the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden, which were signed on July 5, 2022, with the Government of the United States in accordance with Article II of each Protocol. (see https://www.congress.gov/117/cdoc/tdoc3/CDOC-117tdoc3.pdf)
If either protocol has not been ratified by all parties by July 1, 2023, this market will resolve to NO.
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Just to double-check, primarily for League purposes: in what time zone will you measure "beginning of the day"? GMT? EST? CET? UTC? (I want to know if it's worth holding on to the ~18 marbles of profit I'd miss out on if I sold off now.)
Timeline for Finland joining was
30 Mar: Turkey approves
4 Apr: Finland joins NATO
ie 5 days (or 3 business days) between Turkish approval and accession.
https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-erdogan-plays-down-swedens-nato-hopes/
Sweden has still not won Turkey’s support to join NATO ahead of the military alliance’s summit in Vilnius next month, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Wednesday — pouring cold water on rising hopes that a deal might be near
@ShadowyZephyr He wants US-Fighters so he can have good öarade TV-Shots ;-)
So my guess is, that he will comply.
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-eeb46646206b
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-f677c48dd2b7
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d
BBC News - Turkey approves Finland Nato membership bid
BBC: Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64380066
@zQ4Z82W Actually you are probably right. Wikipedia made it sound like June was the liklier date and the one article I pulled also said June, but most are still saying May, though in consideration of the earthquak, that might change.