Will Finland and Sweden be approved to join NATO by July 1, 2023?
20%
chance

This market will resolve YES if, by the beginning of the day on July 1, 2023, instruments of ratification have been deposited by all parties to the Protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949 on the Accession of the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden, which were signed on July 5, 2022, with the Government of the United States in accordance with Article II of each Protocol. (see https://www.congress.gov/117/cdoc/tdoc3/CDOC-117tdoc3.pdf)

If either protocol has not been ratified by all parties by July 1, 2023, this market will resolve to NO.

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MatthewvanderMerwe avatar

BBC: Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64380066

zQ4Z82W avatar
zQ4Z82W
is predicting YES at 18%

The next election is May 14, and AFAICT the winner will be sworn into office two weeks later. So Erdogan may not even be in power by June.