Will an Israeli combat aircraft be shot down by enemy forces during the current conflict or any downstream conflicts?
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Oct 14
28%
chance

Israel is proficient in the use of stand-off weapons, and evading enemy surface-to-air missiles. The most recent airframe they lost was an F-16I Soufa (Storm) in 2018 to an S-200 system, prior to that 2006 was the last time they lost an aircraft. Syria has S-200 systems, as does Iran. Iran, Egypt, and Syria also have more advanced S-300 systems, Syria's is overseen by Russia. S-400 systems are also located in Syria but are strictly under the control of Russian forces.

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What is the criteria for this to resolve to no?

predicts YES

@MatthewSakaluk No aircraft shootdowns between now and the date listed.

Do UAVs (non-suicide) and helicopters qualify, or only fixed-wing combat aircraft?

predicts YES

@MemeMan Manned combat aircraft - fixed or rotary, doesn't matter.

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