Will an Israeli combat aircraft be shot down by enemy forces during the current conflict or any downstream conflicts?
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530
Oct 14
45%
chance

Israel is proficient in the use of stand-off weapons, and evading enemy surface-to-air missiles. The most recent airframe they lost was an F-16I Soufa (Storm) in 2018 to an S-200 system, prior to that 2006 was the last time they lost an aircraft. Syria has S-200 systems, as does Iran. Iran, Egypt, and Syria also have more advanced S-300 systems, Syria's is overseen by Russia. S-400 systems are also located in Syria but are strictly under the control of Russian forces.

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@YairHalberstadt This event happened on October 7th. The creator of the market stated that a combat aircraft has to be shot down after the market was created (on October 13th) for this to resolve yes.

What is the criteria for this to resolve to no?

predicts YES

@MatthewSakaluk No aircraft shootdowns between now and the date listed.

Do UAVs (non-suicide) and helicopters qualify, or only fixed-wing combat aircraft?

predicts YES

@MemeMan Manned combat aircraft - fixed or rotary, doesn't matter.

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