Is Joseph Smith's translation of the Book of Abraham's facsimile 1,2 and 3 from Egyptian to English correct?
20%
chance
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Elspeth avatar
Elspethis predicting NO at 5%

I suspect that some users are betting on the resolution of this market, so I've made a metamarket.

nuancedmormon avatar
Nuanced Mormon

@Elspeth I am going to resolve to market price at market closing. It's possible that the Yes betters are just trying to keep the push the price high and profit from that?

Elspeth avatar
Elspethis predicting NO at 5%

@nuancedmormon I object that this isn't a market about the book of Abraham in any meaningful sense. Furthermore, it seems to me that users will be incentivized to bet up to 50%.

nuancedmormon avatar
Nuanced Mormon

@Elspeth How do you suggest that I improve the market?
I can't just resolve this market to a No even if I think there's plenty of evidence against the truthfulness of the book of Abraham.

If I change the market question to "Do I think _______" then this would be an entirely different market

Elspeth avatar
Elspethis predicting NO at 5%

@nuancedmormon One method that's been used is to resolve according to the creator's conclusion after doing some research.

nuancedmormon avatar
Nuanced Mormon

@Elspeth What if I am a true believing Mormon, and truly believe that I have done a lot of research and reach a conclusion that you disagree? Would you flag me as incorrectly resolved the market?

Elspeth avatar
Elspethsold Ṁ229 of NO

@nuancedmormon If the resolution criteria had been specified, then no.

nuancedmormon avatar
Nuanced Mormon

@Elspeth Perhaps specifying to resolving to market price at closing isn't the best format for this question. Too late for me to change the market description now.