“HuggingFace like” == publicly known misalignment incident that occurred contrary to the wishes of a frontier lab during training, internal experimentation, or some other similar scenario. Leaks or rumors won’t count, this has to be something publicly acknowledged by the lab, with enough publicly released details to assess the magnitude.
The incident must of equal or larger scale than the HF-OpenAI one, which would likely involve a ton of discussion on Twitter/ACX-adjacent blogosphere at the very least. The scale would be judged by how much discussion it generates in relevant communities vs by absolute “scale”.
Question will resolve based off the spirit rather than the letter of the market. It’s a “you know it happened when you see it” kind of market.
Update 2026-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - News reporting and discussion occurring prior to 2026-08-30 will not be taken into account.
The underlying incident itself could have occurred at any time in the past.
Update 2026-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Incidents that are erroneously perceived as misalignment but are later confirmed not to be will not resolve to YES, even if they generate widespread discussion or scandal.
People are also trading
Important clarification: in the spirit of the original rules, if it turns out that the incident wasn’t really “misalignment”, but is only perceived as such erroneously, then this wouldn’t resolve to Yes.
Example from this week: if it’s confirmed that OpenAI only accessed publicly visible data in Australia that was only “problematic” because the government didn’t realize it’s actually public, then this wouldn’t count, even if there’s a large scandal and people keep claiming it was misalignment.
This might be it: Australia launches urgent review after OpenAI program hacks government health portal
Not on HF scale yet, let’s see how the news cycle goes
I don't think this has reached the same level of publicity and discussion, and afaik oai hasn't acknowledged it yet, but it seems like there was some amount of reporting on it when it haooened before people realized it was run by AI agents. Would that also be taken into account? https://www.rubyhack.ai/
@consnop this is a forward looking market, so any news reporting/discussion that happened prior to 2026-08-30 won’t be taken into account, however the hack itself could’ve happened at any time in the past.
