Will there be a model that has a 75% win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4 as of January 1st, 2025?
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2025
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As per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, the latest iteration of GPT-4 currently has a 77% (0.77) win rate against Mistral Medium, approximately representing the advantage of GPT-4 over GPT 3.5. As of 2025-01-01, will there be a model that has a 75% or higher win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4?

Clarifications:

  1. I will look at the ranking of the models in the Fraction of Model A Wins for All Non-tied A vs. B Battles section of Chatbot Arena, or an equivalent section as of Jan 1st, 2025. If a new GPT-4 model is released on (say) Dec 31st, 2024 and is not yet ranked on Chatbot Arena, it will not count for the purposes of this question.

  2. Any model that's named gpt-4-* will count. So gpt-4-turbo-2025-01-01 or gpt-4-hyper-advanced will count as "GPT-4". Something like gpt-4.1-turbo or gpt-5-turbo will not count as "GPT-4".

  3. If ChatBot arena no longer provides a win % for any GPT-4 models or ceases to exist entirely, this question will resolve as N/A.

  4. If the ChatBot Arena website happens to be down for maintenance or any technical issue on Jan 1st, 2025, I will keep trying again for 7 days. If after 7 days the ranking is still unavailable, I will resolve this to N/A.

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GPT-4o has a 61% win rate against GPT-4-turbo. Pretty good but still needs a lot of work to get to 75%.

GPT-4o did not follow the gpt-4-x scheme, so it doesn't count as GPT-4 for the purposes of this question (it would've if it was called gpt-4*-*o). So if gpt-4o beats gpt-4-latest with a 75+% win rate in the leaderboard, this will resolve to Yes.

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 52% order

Limit up if anyone wants to take it

why is this market less than the gpt-5 comes out in 2024 market? The 'gpt-5 will be underwhelming' money?
https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

@JoeandSeth GPT-5 could come out and still fail to have a decisive advantage over GPT-4.

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