As per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, the latest iteration of GPT-4 currently has a 77% (0.77) win rate against Mistral Medium, approximately representing the advantage of GPT-4 over GPT 3.5. As of 2025-01-01, will there be a model that has a 75% or higher win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4?
Clarifications:
I will look at the ranking of the models in the
Fraction of Model A Wins for All Non-tied A vs. B Battles
section of Chatbot Arena, or an equivalent section as of Jan 1st, 2025. If a new GPT-4 model is released on (say) Dec 31st, 2024 and is not yet ranked on Chatbot Arena, it will not count for the purposes of this question.Any model that's named
gpt-4-*
will count. Sogpt-4-turbo-2025-01-01
orgpt-4-hyper-advanced
will count as "GPT-4". Something likegpt-4.1-turbo
orgpt-5-turbo
will not count as "GPT-4".If ChatBot arena no longer provides a win % for any GPT-4 models or ceases to exist entirely, this question will resolve as N/A.
If the ChatBot Arena website happens to be down for maintenance or any technical issue on Jan 1st, 2025, I will keep trying again for 7 days. If after 7 days the ranking is still unavailable, I will resolve this to N/A.
why is this market less than the gpt-5 comes out in 2024 market? The 'gpt-5 will be underwhelming' money?
https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025