Will The Vessel in NYC stay open for at least 6 months, conditional on it reopening?
4
30
280
2026
60%
chance

From recent news:

NEW YORK (AP) — The Vessel, a climbable sculpture that drew hordes of tourists to the Hudson Yards megadevelopment on Manhattan’s west side before a string of suicides forced its closure in 2021, will reopen to the public later this year with added safety measures.

The towering honeycomb-like attraction will feature new steel mesh barriers on several of its twisting stairways and platforms, according to a spokesperson for Related Companies, which owns Hudson Yards. The top level of the 150-foot (46-meter) structure will remain off limits.

The spokesperson did not confirm an exact date for the reopening but said the developer looked forward to welcoming visitors back later this year.

Designed by Thomas Heatherwick and fabricated in Venice, the Vessel opened in 2019 as the centerpiece of the glittering new Hudson Yards neighborhood, quickly becoming one of the city’s prime tourist destinations. But after three people took their own lives by jumping off the structure in less than a year, it was closed to the public in early 2021.

The Vessel reopened soon after with new safety features like enhanced security, suicide prevention signs and a ban on hiking up the steps alone — but without the barriers requested by some Manhattan officials and the local community board. Just two months later, it was closed once again, after a 14-year-old visiting the city with his family fatally leapt from the edge.

This market will resolve as YES if:

  1. The Vessel officially reopens.

  2. People are allowed to climb the stairs and reach the top level of the structure.

  3. The Vessel stays open for at least 6 months. It may close for holidays or minor repairs or special events but should stay open to visitors for most of that time.

It will resolve as NO if:

  1. The Vessel officially reopens and people are allowed to climb it.

  2. It then shuts down for any reason within the first 6 months. The shut down must be semi-permanent, not just a temporary closure for holidays, minor repairs or special events.

It will resolve as N/A if:

  1. The Vessel does not reopen by April 14th 2025, or...

  2. It reopens but visitors are not allowed to reach the top level by stairs - i.e. they only reopen the first floor and not the full structure. If the full structure doesn't reopen by April 14th 2025, this will likewise resolve as N/A.

I will not bet on this market. I plan to personally climb The Vessel when it reopens, so I'll have a chance to double check the fact that it fully reopened.

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