@saulmunn How could you win voting no b/c if you're right it doesn't resolve?

@BrentBurdick if Taco Tuesday doesn't cause a startup to be created, this would resolve no...?

(also — you might enjoy this: "Prediction Markets Are Not Polls")

Taco Tuesday has been running for like a year?

https://gwern.net/doc/existential-risk/1993-gott.pdf

So the odds that it lasts longer than R more years is
1/(1+R)

The cdf is 1-that, or (1-1/(1+R))
the pdf is 1/(1+R)^2

so the expected length of time at ~2030 (7 years in the future)

[integral from 0 to 7 of R/(1+R)^2)] + 7/(1+7) ~= 2.08 years

I think it's not crazy to think that there are like ~7 people that have a 10% chance of meeting a cofounder at taco tuesday.

@NoaNabeshima I want the prob to be high 👀