Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
Basic
4
Ṁ3442025
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:
>84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index
ie the average of benchmark scores on
MMLU
GPQA
MATH
HumanEval
MGSM
with no regressions on any individual benchmark
Note:
does not need to be an OpenAI model
open weights or free models will count as cheaper
quantized/distilled versions count, as long as they also beat the same accuracy thresholds
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a “good” (fine-tuned) opensource model utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning like o1 be released by EOY 2024?
90% chance
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
76% chance
By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
76% chance
Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
51% chance
Which of these companies will release a model that thinks before it responds like O1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?
53% chance
Which major AI lab will be the first to release a model that "thinks before it responds" like o1 from OpenAI?
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
33% chance
Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024?
Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
16% chance