Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
13
103Ṁ1043Nov 13
84%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:
>84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index
ie the average of benchmark scores on
MMLU
GPQA
MATH
HumanEval
MGSM
with no regressions on any individual benchmark
Note:
does not need to be an OpenAI model
open weights or free models will count as cheaper
quantized/distilled versions count, as long as they also beat the same accuracy thresholds
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI model surpasses o3's matharena.ai 88% Overall score by July 1, 2025?
15% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
36% chance
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
49% chance
Will mlsim models outperform tinysim models by July 2025?
59% chance
Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?
5% chance
How much cheaper to use will o3-equivalent or better models get before 2026?
Will o3.5 be released before 2026?
4% chance
Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?
14% chance
Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?
86% chance