MANIFOLD
"a self-growing city on the Moon ... in less than ten years"
12
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k
2036
10%
chance

Elon said it, let's put it to the test.

I don't know what "self-growing" means here or even "city" but let's give the lunars the benefit of the doubt and say "we'll know it when we see it."

  • Wikipedia gives us "permanent and densely populated place with administratively defined boundaries whose members work primarily on non-agricultural tasks" for city. And although no hard number is given, it's more like tens of thousands than like dozens.

  • "Self-growing" probably means physical rather than population expansion? So we should look for an increase in physical size principally from raw materials from the Moon itself. On the other hand Musk is a population growth enthusiast, so possibly he meant that, so in the unlikely event that on-Moon human reproduction exceeds the death rate, maybe we allow that as well, if the statistical sample size is large enough.

Suggestions welcome from the comments.

This resolution is potentially subjective, so I will not trade on this market.

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I would be very impressed even by a permanently occupied surface station in this timeframe.

Yeah, every part of this idea seems a bit goofy, but IMO a great use of prediction markets is to memorialize and gamify the pronouncements of the prominent for a few years longer than their usual one-news-cycle shelf life.
Of course naturally I also look forward to Mr. Musk himself dropping by to put a few Ṁ on this any time now. Presumably with his inside information he has a clearer posterior probability estimate than we do :-)

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