This market resolves YES if credible reporting on GPT-4's parameter count is available by 11:59 PM EST on March 31, 2023. Credible reporting must be corroborated by OpenAI, and the reported parameter count must have at least 2 significant digits.
This market will resolve YES immediately after the above conditions are met. If they are not met at any point by the expiration date, this market resolves NO.
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If this market resolves NO, I will make another market with a later expiration date (tentatively May 31st). Any feedback on the rules I used here? In particular, I would like to hear what people think about the "2 significant digits" constraint. I'm wondering if I should reduce this to 1 or maybe go with another formulation.
@firstuserhere That tells me the answer is "a small enough number that it wouldn't sound impressive enough to be good PR"
@jonsimon or maybe so small that it would be impressive, but they don't want to give away any tricks they've come up with for making small models more capable
@jonsimon But people are dumb so all they would heard is "OpenAI's model isn't the biggest" and therefore assume it must not be the bestest
"The latest language model, GPT-4, has 1 trillion parameters."
The secret history of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and OpenAI | Semafor
We have the credible reporting part: "Semafor spoke to eight people familiar with the inside story, and is revealing the details here for the first time."
@Mira That's 1 significant digit, so even if it were corroborated it wouldn't count.
They explicitly said in the paper, "Given both the competitive landscape and the safety implications of large-scale models like GPT-4, this report contains no further details about the architecture (including model size), hardware, training compute, dataset construction, training method, or similar." So if I understand the market correctly, this would require them to go back on that statement. Model size seems basically synonymous with parameter count here. https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf