Who will be Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor?
Who will be Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor?
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1.1kṀ70512026
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0.4%
Patrick Pizzella
0.4%
Bryan Slater
99%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
0.2%
Resolves 100% to the person who is nominated by Donald Trump in his second term, and is confirmed by the United States Senate, for the office of Secretary of Labor. Initial candidates are chosen from the Politico list of likely nominees but additional candidates may be added.
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Added nominee Chavez-DeRemer; I guess probability should reflect probability of confirmation? Related markets, first Chavez-DeRemer and nominees for other cabinet posts each listed.
Others are about how many nominees will fail (Chavez-DeRemer could factor in given a somewhat controversial nominee, though not nearly as controversial as some others).
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.