Who will be Donald Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury?
Who will be Donald Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury?
49
1.2kṀ22kresolved Jan 29
100%99.0%
Scott Bessent
0.1%
Howard Lutnick
0.1%
Robert Lighthizer
0.1%
Jay Clayton
0.1%
Larry Kudlow
0.1%
John Paulson
0.1%
Bill Hagerty
0.1%
Kevin Warsh
0.2%
Marc Rowan
0.2%Other
Resolves 100% to the person who is nominated by Donald Trump in his second term, and is confirmed by the United States Senate, for the office of Secretary of the Treasury. Initial candidates are chosen from the Politico list of likely nominees but additional candidates may be added.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.