Sep 26, 6:46am: Note for posterity — if this looks like insider trading, it was! I couldn’t resolve the market due to a Manifold bug, but I had already excitedly told my friends. Blame them. Sorry.

All answers should be in the form of a date. The question resolves to the closest date AFTER the day my toddler takes his first unassisted step.

Sep 1, 7:36am: He is 19.5 months old and has been doing physical therapy for gross motor skills since June. At present he cruises confidently but can’t stand independently.

Sep 7, 11:42am: He can walk 10-15’ while pushing a toy!

Sep 19, 7:55am: He can walk around for 30-60 second whiles holding an adult’s hand, and has spent most of this morning pulling up to stand and then letting go to balance independently. He can do it for about ten seconds a time.