Will Yevgeny Prigozhin still be alive and posting videos at the end of July?
resolved Jul 31

Dear Leader of PMC Wagner and Democratic People's Republic of Rostov-on-Don, will he prevail and keep shitposting on telegram?

Resolving YES if he posts at least one video message in the last week of July and is alive on July 31

*update June 25 - he has traded Wagner and Rostov for an undisclosed amount of potatoes and life in Belarus. Radio silence since.

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GrantBrady avatar
Grant Bradypredicted YES

Considering he was just assassinated, I would say he was alive at the end of July, although not posting videos.

nickten avatar

Will resolve at midnight (3h from now).

Looks like a solid No, unless someone can link something I've missed.

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalry

@nickten requires a video not audio right

nickten avatar

@SemioticRivalry correct. there are 3 audio clips, those don't count.

nickten avatar

Another short audio message today about the current state of Wagner. AND.... a video (!!) of Prigozhin (!!!) ... but it's a repost from new year's eve.

ianminds avatar
ianmindsbought Ṁ71 of NO

@nickten Nailbiter!

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkessold Ṁ80 of NO

@ianminds too rich for my blood!

James Humphreysbought Ṁ500 ofYES
justifieduseofFallibilism avatar
Timothy Currie

@JamesHumphreys Why did you buy so much? Did he post a video?

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicted NO

I do not see any vids?

Puggy avatar
Puggysold Ṁ334 of YES

If you wanted to ask “will progozhin be alive and shitposting on telegram” then you should have asked that. Since this only resolves with a telegram shitpost then the question is misleading.

BarrDetwix avatar
Barr Detwixbought Ṁ24 of NO

Personally, I bought NO based on the narrow resolution criteria of posting a video within the last week and still being alive by the end of it

If it were any picture or video where he appears, then I would feel misled ..

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Puggy even if you don't take the "shitposting" req that literally, prigozhin still isn't posting videos himself

nickten avatar

@Puggy Sure, we can do the literal title, show me a video posted by Prigozhin at the end of July.

Puggy avatar
Puggypredicted YES
justifieduseofFallibilism avatar
Timothy Curriesold Ṁ141 of NO

@Puggy But its just a photo

nickten avatar

@Puggy that's from a telegram post from July 27 and it's just a picture

Puggy avatar
Puggypredicted YES

@nickten Would you count this telephone interview in Cameroon. It’s a video including his audio, accompanied with the pictures he took with media afrique then I think the jist of this question has been answered.


nickten avatar

@Puggy No. I understand that you have a large position, but it is what it is - our boy is just not posting video messages like he used to back in the coup days.

There's still a day left though...

Puggy avatar
Puggysold Ṁ140 of YES


Puggy avatar
Puggypredicted YES

@Puggy He’s alive, shitposting, and appearing in African media but he hasn’t shown himself on video this week.

Puggy avatar
Puggybought Ṁ197 of YES


If there’s any video of him at the Africa summit on July 28 this should resolve Yes.

justifieduseofFallibilism avatar
Timothy Curriesold Ṁ135 of NO

@Puggy Just links to a photo.

justifieduseofFallibilism avatar
Timothy Curriepredicted NO

@Puggy Oh I misread. But I think if someone else records him in a formal setting that is quite different than him posting on telegram, and that is what this market is about right?

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

@Timothy I believe so. My bet wishes otherwise, but so it goes

nickten avatar


will he prevail and keep shitposting on telegram?

this is the soul of the question. i'm willing to be somewhat lenient, but a tv recording of a formal meeting like the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg will not count. sorry @Puggy