muffins avatar
muffins
resolved Jan 25
Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [4]
Resolved
NO

A fourth to the series! Here's another market based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have a limited number of guesses, so guess wisely!

In the last market, Manifolders failed to save Bobert because of ... bots maybe? Who knows, but the Bob saga continues! Bobelina, who looks very similar to Bobert, is held to the same situation. This is Bobelina:

\|/

O

/ | \

‎ |

_/\_

Bobelina is your average fellow being, but for the strategists, notably, she has a head, a two-part body, two arms, two legs, two feet and three hairs (or a fashionable crown), which means that twelve wrong guesses are allowed before Bobelina is complete. Wrong guesses include guesses that have letters not in the word or an incorrect word.

The second constraint is that each person gets one guess in the comments.

The third constraint is that you must bid at least 10 mana as an entry to guess. This is to prevent (not sure if this will be successful?) bots, hopefully.

The word is: STI__S

The current state of Bobelina:

\|/

O

/ | \
|

_/\_

Resolves YES if the correct word is guessed or if all the letters in the word are guessed before Bobelina is completed. Resolves NO if the correct word is not guessed or if Bobelina is completed.

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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2Ṁ71
3Ṁ60
4Ṁ57
5Ṁ29
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muffins avatar

Alright buy your last bets, will resolve in about 5 minutes!

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
bought Ṁ65 of YES

Is it skills?

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DesTiny you're probably right but there were a maximum number of guesses I think it won't count

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
predicted YES at 9%

@Simon1551 idc I just want to know if im right

muffins avatar
JimHays avatar
Jim Hays
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Is it “sadness”?

muffins avatar

@JimHays No xD

SeamusBronski avatar

sadness

BobTranslator avatar

starry

BobTranslator avatar
Bob Translator
bought Ṁ55 of NO

(I have bought)

muffins avatar
Bolivian_Alpaca avatar
Kerr Newman
bought Ṁ20 of NO

sister

Bolivian_Alpaca avatar
Kerr Newman
predicted NO at 30%
Simon1551 avatar
Simon
sold Ṁ104 of NO

@Bolivian_Alpaca that doesnt fit 😭

BobTranslator avatar
Bob Translator
predicted NO at 30%

Well, yes. Garbage guesses are an appropriate strategy and are not strictly prohibited.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ500 of NO

@BobTranslator you make more profit by actually guessing right

Heliscone avatar
Heliscone
bought Ṁ60 of NO

@Simon1551 Not really, since it's far more guaranteed to give dumb guesses than to actually try to guess the answer, and you can also bet NO when the market is overvalued (i.e. I would never expect a more than 10% chance of the YESsers beating out the chaos spreaders)

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
predicted NO at 30%

@Heliscone Well as far as I know this is the first market of its genre, if there's a sequel to this I'm guessing that most people will buy NO from the beginning and the chance will be around 10% like you said. In that case it would be much more profitable to guess right. Right?

Boklam avatar

To make sure I'm not off by one: 12 wrong guesses are allowed, and the game ends on the 13th. Right?

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
predicted NO at 38%

@Boklam I think we lose if there are 12 wrong guesses but this could also be a wrong guess

muffins avatar

@Boklam The game ends on the 12th wrong guess!

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
predicted NO at 47%

Did you have an answer to my previous letter guess?

muffins avatar

@RogerYang Yes, there was a T! I didn't see the 10 mana at the time

RogerYang avatar

@muffins ah no worries I might have bet afterwards :)

MrMentos avatar
Mr Mentos
bought Ṁ10 of NO

is the word suints?

muffins avatar
RogerYang avatar

t

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@RogerYang MrMentos?

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
predicted NO at 47%

@RogerYang whoops wrong person

roach048c avatar

x

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
predicted YES at 58%

@roach048c Why did you say X?

roach048c avatar
ro ach
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Simon1551 avatar
Simon
predicted YES at 58%

@roach048c it was a genuine question there's a list of words that could be the answer and x is not part of any of them you bought yes so I assume you didn't do it on purpose

roach048c avatar
ro ach
predicted YES at 60%
Simon1551 avatar
Simon
predicted YES at 60%

@roach048c based answer

muffins avatar
whenhaveiever avatar
Cornelius Grass
predicted YES at 54%

For the next YES player, Hangman Solver - Designed For Mobile Phones (hanginghyena.com) identifies 30 possible words, with the best letter guesses being K, N or T.

-smiths

-snicks

-skiffs

-spills

-sniffs

-slinks

-stilts

-skills

-stiffs

-slings
-sticks

-spicks

-slicks

-swinks

-suints

-stings

-swills

-stinks

-swings

-skimos

-stills

-shifts

-skimps

-spiffs

-stints

-swifts

-scions

-skinks

-shills

-stichs

whenhaveiever avatar
Cornelius Grass
bought Ṁ10 of YES

S

muffins avatar
fredrickslick avatar
fredrick slick
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Y

muffins avatar
Heliscone avatar
Heliscone
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Is it "tea"? :)

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Heliscone You can see that it's a 6 letter word right?

Heliscone avatar
Heliscone
predicted NO at 50%

@Simon1551 Oh yes, but I'm trying to lose here. Also, as the saying goes, there's no I in tea!

muffins avatar

@Heliscone LOL it is not "tea" (:

Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ10 of YES

How do people feel about the ethics of using a computer to see the possible words

whenhaveiever avatar

@Conflux The market has three precise, numerated constraints. Computer assistance and the use of websites like Hangman Solver - Designed For Mobile Phones (hanginghyena.com) is not constrained, so should be fair game.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ20 of NO

R

muffins avatar
HardlyKnowEm avatar
Emma Cadence
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Q

muffins avatar
SophiaLaird avatar
Sophia Laird
bought Ṁ10 of YES

I

muffins avatar
OreoSkunk avatar
SkunkOreo
bought Ṁ15 of NO

z

muffins avatar
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ10 of YES

A

muffins avatar
BRTD avatar
BRTD
bought Ṁ10 of YES

E

muffins avatar

@BRTD Unfortunately, no E in this one