Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [4]
23
38
470
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
NO

A fourth to the series! Here's another market based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have a limited number of guesses, so guess wisely!

In the last market, Manifolders failed to save Bobert because of ... bots maybe? Who knows, but the Bob saga continues! Bobelina, who looks very similar to Bobert, is held to the same situation. This is Bobelina:

\|/

O

/ | \

‎ |

_/\_

Bobelina is your average fellow being, but for the strategists, notably, she has a head, a two-part body, two arms, two legs, two feet and three hairs (or a fashionable crown), which means that twelve wrong guesses are allowed before Bobelina is complete. Wrong guesses include guesses that have letters not in the word or an incorrect word.

The second constraint is that each person gets one guess in the comments.

The third constraint is that you must bid at least 10 mana as an entry to guess. This is to prevent (not sure if this will be successful?) bots, hopefully.

The word is: STI__S

The current state of Bobelina:

\|/

O

/ | \
|

_/\_

Resolves YES if the correct word is guessed or if all the letters in the word are guessed before Bobelina is completed. Resolves NO if the correct word is not guessed or if Bobelina is completed.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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4Ṁ57
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Alright buy your last bets, will resolve in about 5 minutes!

bought Ṁ65 of YES

Is it skills?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DesTiny you're probably right but there were a maximum number of guesses I think it won't count

predicted YES

@Simon1551 idc I just want to know if im right

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Is it “sadness”?

@JimHays No xD

sadness

starry

bought Ṁ55 of NO

(I have bought)

bought Ṁ20 of NO

sister

predicted NO
sold Ṁ104 of NO

@Bolivian_Alpaca that doesnt fit 😭

predicted NO

Well, yes. Garbage guesses are an appropriate strategy and are not strictly prohibited.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@BobTranslator you make more profit by actually guessing right

bought Ṁ60 of NO

@Simon1551 Not really, since it's far more guaranteed to give dumb guesses than to actually try to guess the answer, and you can also bet NO when the market is overvalued (i.e. I would never expect a more than 10% chance of the YESsers beating out the chaos spreaders)

predicted NO

@Heliscone Well as far as I know this is the first market of its genre, if there's a sequel to this I'm guessing that most people will buy NO from the beginning and the chance will be around 10% like you said. In that case it would be much more profitable to guess right. Right?

To make sure I'm not off by one: 12 wrong guesses are allowed, and the game ends on the 13th. Right?

predicted NO

@Boklam I think we lose if there are 12 wrong guesses but this could also be a wrong guess

@Boklam The game ends on the 12th wrong guess!

predicted NO

Did you have an answer to my previous letter guess?

@RogerYang Yes, there was a T! I didn't see the 10 mana at the time

@muffins ah no worries I might have bet afterwards :)