[1K Subsidy] Will I be a MATS scholar in 2024?
23
1.7k
resolved May 23
Resolved
NO

INFO:

By MATS I of course mean https://www.matsprogram.org/. I did not apply for the 2024 winter cohort, but I was able to answer 1.5 of Kosoy's selection questions and one of davidad's. When I apply for the summer cohort, I will likely only apply to mentors whose selection questions entirely or mostly consist of math problems (though if there are other mentors for topics that I'm really interested in, like Shard Theory or Cyborgism, I will probably apply to them as well).

RESOLUTION CRITERIA:

Resolves YES if I apply, get accepted, and attend the summer 2024 MATS program.

Resolves NO if I apply but get rejected. (This includes cases where I get accepted into a training program like Neel Nanda's, but am rejected after that)

Resolved N/A if I don't apply, or if I am accepted but don't attend the program.

INSIDER TRADING PREVENTION:

I will only ever hold a YES position on this market, but I reserve the right to buy and sell YES shares as I please. I will not trade on this market immediately before commenting with new information.

UPDATE: I now very highly value having a good forecast on this, so if you want any information from me that will improve your prediction, comment or dm me a question and I will likely put the answer under "ADDITIONAL INFO". (and then I will tag you in a comment so you can trade on that info before others get the chance)

ADDITIONAL INFO:

  • My probability distribution on number of streams I would apply for, given that I apply at all: 50% one, 25% two, 15% three, 10% 4+

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There are no agent foundations streams, so it looks like I probably won't do a stage 2 application

Arb opp since manifold made two copies of this market for some reason https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-i-be-a-mats-scholar-in-2024-e05080e110ba#5z1KmRYtRJz9Ds0i1Le1

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