I'm at a CFAR workshop. One of the things I wrote as something I want to have is using prediction markets to answer important questions and come up with things for all sorts of problems that I encounter. Will I post at least 50 questions on Manifold in the next three months?
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# | Name | Total profit |
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3 | แน286 | |
4 | แน278 | |
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@ms I lost just a tiny amount (49 Mana), but I held 6k+ shares. Ofc I'd be happy to be compensated for it, but the reason for being unhappy is that the resolution criteria remained unknown till the last 3 mins
@Dreamingpast I'm happy to send you a mana link for M$49. Sorry about the resolution criteria!
@Dreamingpast i lost M200. Independently if I get it back, I think the "move" was unethical , but even worse, it was lame. Manipulate a market in a clever way I think it's welcome in many contexts, even if you get smarted by the person doing the manipulation.
@ms_test is not an unknown account, you can find interactions between the two in the comments in both profiles, this question was about me posting questions and not about this account posting questions
@ms you can also find interactions between many accounts - doing the digging that the accounts are related and supposed to count towards each others market is not really a known detail - building that relationship graph is not the user's responsibility. You should've explicitly mentioned the resolution metrics
I feel like N/A was introduced for scenarios like this. I feel like scrambling to create markets like "market 1", "market 2", and "market 3" was implicit acknowledgement that the test account was shady. Any time resolution criteria is unclear when trades are made, markets should resolve N/A imo. That should encourage explicit criteria rather than profiting off of unclear criteria
@PatMyron I think this market should resolve to Yes due to me creating more than 50 meaningful markets. To make other interpretations also seem like the market should resolve to Yes, I created one market that was left for this account, and there's definitely more questions posted in the comments from this account.
That said, how much M$ have you lost? I'm happy to send a mana link
@ms this market was about questions - "Will I post at least 50 questions on Manifold in the next 3 months?" - your final 3 markets are not questions - they're a single word
@Dreamingpast if you want to count "questions" instead of "markets", there are many questions that I posted in the comments
@ms Again, the resolution criteria has to be decided and informed to the users - otherwise put up a tag telling others not do bet here. If comments were to count as a resolution criteria, and you wanted someone to write a script to figure out how many questions you asked - then you should've made that clear and made it a fair market