It's too late but if I could sell my Gukesh stock, I would. Ding has the mandate of heaven

@dlin007 Yeah, I flipped my order today. Not just the game result, but Ding played like DingFish 17. Hes so back

@StarkLN I mean today was an exceptional game - he could still lose but I'm just not confident in Gukesh anymore, he's playing nervously and playing bad moves quickly - worked out for him yesterday but got busted today.

More detailed options for the rest of the Classical portion

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/exact-result-of-games-12-13-14-in-w

And a round to Gukesh

Game 11: Gukesh–Ding, 1–0

Overall: 6-5

Game 11 Ding has currently spent more than an hour before making his 5th move. Position is equal but holy hell his time management is unbelievably bad.

@JeremiahJohnson gukesh just spent 1 hour in a single move

Game 10: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

5-5

Arb:

4-4

Game 8: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

Spicy

If Gukesh doesn't win today i'll be well and truly shocked and would flip my odds to 60/40 Ding

@dlin007 this was before the match, which turned out to be a bit of foreshadowing. Still don't think Ding is the favorite but, like, if he was to win this is how it would happen

@dlin007 Wait why didn't your odds flip?

@dlin007 would Ding winning the match make you revise your odds of a Gukesh victory?

@KD89042 cause my priors are too strong, and the way I imagined a draw happening today is not how it happened. Gukesh still outplayed him easily, and is still in the drivers seat even if he's sloppy/not sharp

@ADings haven't considered how i would react in this situation because i haven't considered it at all.

@dlin007 I said match, not game

@ADings i was talking about the match - i haven't considered it at all because it won't happen

Game 6: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

Game 5: Gukesh–Ding, ½–½

it's pretty obvious now that Game 1 was a fluke. Ding is going to get spanked starting today, and this (sweepcash!) market is overvalued by at least 10x

@dlin007 Then you should bet on it.

@dlin007 Did the game today change your mind at all?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 a bit...because I assumed Gukesh was in dominant form, and the trajectory of the match was entirely up to him. But maybe he is just in ordinary form in which case he might merely win a normal victory as opposed to a crushing one. But my basic thesis is still unchanged for now - at some point the dam will break and Ding will lose multiple games in a row

@Weezing happy?