This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.
@dlin007 Yeah, I flipped my order today. Not just the game result, but Ding played like DingFish 17. Hes so back
@StarkLN I mean today was an exceptional game - he could still lose but I'm just not confident in Gukesh anymore, he's playing nervously and playing bad moves quickly - worked out for him yesterday but got busted today.
More detailed options for the rest of the Classical portion
https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/exact-result-of-games-12-13-14-in-w
Game 11: Gukesh–Ding, 1–0
Overall: 6-5
Game 11 Ding has currently spent more than an hour before making his 5th move. Position is equal but holy hell his time management is unbelievably bad.
@dlin007 this was before the match, which turned out to be a bit of foreshadowing. Still don't think Ding is the favorite but, like, if he was to win this is how it would happen
@KD89042 cause my priors are too strong, and the way I imagined a draw happening today is not how it happened. Gukesh still outplayed him easily, and is still in the drivers seat even if he's sloppy/not sharp
@ADings haven't considered how i would react in this situation because i haven't considered it at all.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 a bit...because I assumed Gukesh was in dominant form, and the trajectory of the match was entirely up to him. But maybe he is just in ordinary form in which case he might merely win a normal victory as opposed to a crushing one. But my basic thesis is still unchanged for now - at some point the dam will break and Ding will lose multiple games in a row