Will Ding Liren win the 2024 World Chess Championship?
Basic
41
𝕊486
Jan 1
33%
chance

This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.

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#️ Chess
#Board Games
#2024 World Chess Championship
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Ṁ1,000
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S3.00
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Lichess projection after game 3:

https://lichess.org/@/Lichess/blog/wcc-2024-round-3-gukesh-bounces-back-after-trapping-a-bishop/fWU1clnH

Ding's overall chance of winning is 32.6%.

Game 3: Gukesh-Ding, 1–0

Game 2: Ding–Gukesh, ½–½

bought 𝕊6.10 YES

Game 1: Gukesh–Ding, 0–1

Arb

https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-chess-world-champi

https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-gukesh-dommaraju-beat-ding-lir

Curious as to why this is so low; Ding's rating is only about 50 elo lower than Gukesh's, giving a base rate win% for ~57-60% Gukesh.


https://ratings.fide.com/profile/8603677

https://ratings.fide.com/profile/46616543
elo win prob. calculator: https://www.318chess.com/elo.html

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 18% order

@JoeBoyle Even if an individual game can go either way, in 14 games, the stronger player is very likely to do better.

@JoeBoyle Ding has also been in remarkably poor form recently AFAIK. There may be reason to think he's currently underperforming his elo.

@JoeBoyle https://www.espn.in/chess/story/_/id/42264924/ding-liren-d-gukesh-chess-world-championships-worried-losing-badly

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