How much money will ClaudePlaysPokemon have left after completing Safari Zone?
16
1kṀ14k
Jan 21
59%
Does not complete Safari Zone
0.3%
$0 - $9,999
0.3%
$10,000-$19,999
0.3%
$20,000-$29,999
0.3%
$30,000-$39,999
0.3%
$40,000-$49,999
3%
$50,000-$59,999
0.6%
$60,000-$69,999
36%
$70,000+

Watch Claude play Pokemon Red here! https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

After defeating Giovanni, Claude had $74,643; he likely will get more on the way to the Safari Zone from defeating trainers. Each attempt at the Safari Zone costs $500. Completing it means getting the two items from it required to progress: Gold Teeth and HM03 (Surf). Claude is usually consistent about thinking about money whenever it changes, but if it's unclear how much money he has left at the end, this will resolve based on my best estimate.

This market is about the current Claude Opus 4.5 run only. If the run is reset to the beginning for any reason before Claude completes the Safari Zone, this market will resolve "Does not complete Safari Zone".

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve to "Does not complete Safari Zone" immediately if Claude runs out of money. It will only resolve to this outcome when the run is actually reset.

  • Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on Claude's money at the time he picks up the Gold Teeth, not when he picks up HM03 (Surf) or completes both items.

Market context
Claude
Pokemon
Twitch
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
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bought Ṁ10 YES

I put a little down on 50k-60k, since he hates Poke centers so much that he'll do Mansion-Blaine-Giovanni-route 2 Rival all without healing, and maybe black out

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 10% order

Surf acquired.

bought Ṁ200 YES

Secret house reached! With over $90k gold left. He walked past the teeth though lol.

sold Ṁ618 YES

@moobunny He needs the teeth for this to resolve, right?

@JoshSnider Correct, and it will be based on whatever his money is if and when he picks up the teeth.

He just started his 27th attempt, bringing his money to $99,702.

Funny possibility: what if he gets Surf, forgets all about Strength, and only remembers when he hits the boulder puzzles in either Seafoam Island or Victory road? By then he'll have much more money.

Not all that likely, but I guess this subtracts a bit of probability from the lower numbers

@AhronMaline Absolutely possible! Especially because at that point he’ll have detailed notes to rely on so getting the Gold Teeth won’t be so hard.

@moobunny Yeah, the reason it's unlikely is that Claude knows the basic playthrough pretty well from training data.

@AhronMaline He’s also picked up one random item so far, so he doesn’t seem to be aggressively overlooking them as much anymore.

@moobunny I noticed that! It's as if he learnt his lesson fron Silph Co. Curious if he actually wrote something to cause the change.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@moobunny Wow, you called it! I said this almost as a joke...

@AhronMaline In hindsight I would have set up the market differently, because this has turned into betting on whether he sees a Strength rock and how many times he blacks out before then.

Had the wrong close time, sorry about that! It's been extended.

$113,202 after a scary Koga fight!

@moobunny yeah, I lost a good few mana panic selling 70k+ and buying 40k to 50k because it looked like he was a goner...

$107,755 towards the end of Koga's gym according to his notes.

bought Ṁ16 YES

Note that this market won't resolve "Does not complete Safari Zone" until the run is reset, even if Claude runs out of money.

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