Will Gavin spend at least 2 weeks in the Bahamas before August?

63%

chance

63%

chance

Jul 18

M$73 bet

Gavin was there for a while, left but promised to come back (assigning it 70%); will he?

@misha is betting NO at 71% 8 days ago

Yes.

which Gavin? Gavin Leech?

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Probability

63%→63%

Payout if YES

M$0(+0.0%)