Market resolved prematurely as it's vanishingly unlikely that it will resolve positively. Joel who was a counterparty in some recent trades (on the YES side) agrees with resolving it. If somehow the market will be judged as wrongfully resolved I will offset it to Joel and everyone else who traded here.

At Arb Research, we recently hired a summer RA. As one of us (Misha) will be here and another one of us (Gavin) is likely to be here (70% according to https://manifold.markets/misha/will-gavin-spend-at-least-2-weeks-i), it probably makes sense to work together from here at some point.

🏅 Top traders

Related questions