On August 1st, which fraction of Joel's net profits will come from insider trading?
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105Ṁ359resolved Dec 23
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Recently Joel hit a jackpot winning M$432 betting on https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-ea-bahamas-folks-will-repo and $M396 betting on https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-is-joels-myers-briggs-personal
The rumor is that he was involved in insider trading... as he previously admitted that he was no stranger to insider trading early in his Manifold career, see https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker?tab=Comments
This market will resolve according to an estimate from Joel. Specifically, the quantity will be computed as "profits minus losses from inside trading" over "profits minus losses overall", as this fraction might be negative or greater than 1 we will clip it to the 0 to 1 range.
The profits and losses do not necessarily need to be realized (= can still be in the form of bets).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Angela Yes means 100% from insider trading, no means 0%. If the actual answer is in between, say 40%, then the payout goes 40% to the yes holders and 60% to the no holders.
It's confusing to think about it in terms of how much M$ of yes/no to buy. It's easier to look at the probability - if you think the expected answer is 70%, and the current market is at 40%, then you make a profit (on average) by betting some YES, because buying 1 YES share costs 40 cents and pays out 70 cents if you're right. The price goes up as you buy more, so you can keep profiting until the price gets near 70%.
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/total-donations-for-manifold-for-go shows M$28,892 profit for Joel, and I think that is insider trading since he made >$4000 out of the $5000 total donations (and most of that right before the market closed). https://manifold.markets/leaderboards shows M$22,810 total profit. So I conclude that right now this is >100% :)
@jack I would not count forcing an outcome upon the market as an insider trading. It's a market manipulation (including market resolution manipulation) but not insider trading per my intuition.
Note that "this market will resolve according to an estimate from Joel."
@misha Hmm, I guess it is debatable. I'm willing to bet that Joel will consider it enough like insider trading that I still have YES here. I think it could be considered insider trading because he traded on his inside information about how much would be donated. It also certainly could be considered market manipulation. They aren't mutually exclusive, but I guess if he was already going to donate then it feels more like insider trading, and if he only donated to get the desired resolution then it feels more like market manipulation.
But to make an analogy, if the Twitter board bought up a bunch of Twitter stock before signing the deal to sell to Elon Musk, I think it would be considered insider trading but not market manipulation. Them taking an action to increase Twitter's stock price is considered a good thing that's part of their job, after all. Joel's action seems more similar to this than to what we usually think of as market manipulation - there was no deception involved (to my knowledge), only private information and action.
@jack trading based on private information not always is insider trading. In this case, we had a very clear contract and Joel made money of being smart about their contract. I don't know clear analogies in finance, maybe someone exploited some exotic options? But all sort of short squeezes or e.g. 1983 Ginnie Mae derivatives trade feel similar enough to this one and are not insider trading.
@jack my plan for resolving was to give an insidertradingness rating to each market.
e.g.: for EA bahamas i clearly had some sort of info vs. most traders on manifold, but the only time i attempted to use true insider-info (petra joining our covid channel on slack) vs. traders in EA bahamas, it was a mistake (she was just curious, no COVID). that particular market would get an insidertradingness rating of 0.5.
@JoelBecket if you will make money from inside trading and lose on other bets, it will resolve to 1. If you will make equal money from inside trading and ordinary prediction, it will resolve to 50%.