Recently Joel hit a jackpot winning M$432 betting on https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-ea-bahamas-folks-will-repo and $M396 betting on https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-is-joels-myers-briggs-personal

The rumor is that he was involved in insider trading... as he previously admitted that he was no stranger to insider trading early in his Manifold career, see https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker?tab=Comments

This market will resolve according to an estimate from Joel. Specifically, the quantity will be computed as "profits minus losses from inside trading" over "profits minus losses overall", as this fraction might be negative or greater than 1 we will clip it to the 0 to 1 range.

The profits and losses do not necessarily need to be realized (= can still be in the form of bets).

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