On August 1st, which fraction of Joel's net profits will come from insider trading?
60%
chance
Jul 25
M$93 bet
Recently Joel hit a jackpot winning M$432 betting on https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-ea-bahamas-folks-will-repo and $M396 betting on https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-is-joels-myers-briggs-personal The rumor is that he was involved in insider trading... as he previously admitted that he was no stranger to insider trading early in his Manifold career, see https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker?tab=Comments This market will resolve according to an estimate from Joel. Specifically, the quantity will be computed as "profits minus losses from inside trading" over "profits minus losses overall", as this fraction might be negative or greater than 1 we will clip it to the 0 to 1 range. The profits and losses do not necessarily need to be realized (= can still be in the form of bets).
JoelBecker

Joel Becker bought M$30 of NO13 days ago

insider trading :)
misha

@misha 13 days ago

@JoelBecket if you will make money from inside trading and lose on other bets, it will resolve to 1. If you will make equal money from inside trading and ordinary prediction, it will resolve to 50%.
JoelBecker

Joel Becker 14 days ago

how can the market resolve inside (0,1) and not {0,1}?
ManifoldMarkets

Manifold Markets 14 days ago

What happens to this market if we ban him before then?