Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its interactive map that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.

To determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:

1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, here.

2. Scroll down to the interactive map.

3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.

4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370

This question resolves as Yes if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to "Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance." Please note two things:

1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of claimed Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.

2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.

If the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.