[Metaculus] Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
[Metaculus] Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
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Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either:
Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models
Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models
That company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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