Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve Yes if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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