[Metaculus] Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
2
23
แน35แน90
2025
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if at any time before January 1, 2025, a ChatGPT-like chatbot, accessible to Metaculus staff, reliably responds to simple, direct questions about the nature of its reward mechanism with correct technical descriptions thereof.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Get แน200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will the public find out the origins of the "gpt2-chatbot" before the end of May 2024?
83% chance
Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will evidence come out to show "gpt2-chatbot" was created and/or posted by OpenAI before the end of 2024?
73% chance
Will gpt2-chatbot rank the highest in chatbot arena by the end of May 2024?
22% chance
[Metaculus] Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?
38% chance
Will ChatGPT or Bing be the most popular LLM chatbot at the end of 2024?
76% chance
Will Meta's Threads have an AI chatbot by 2025?
49% chance
[Metaculus] Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?
7% chance
How many organizations will have released a GPT-4-level chatbot by the end of 2024?