[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?

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Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.

If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ750 NO

Walz is proposing exactly October 1st, which wouldn't count in the Metaculus description: https://x.com/Tim_Walz/status/1823824781873176770

I'm also factoring in all of the other markets talking about if JD Vance gets couched and somebody else gets to be Trump's VP. Surely that would make scheduling a debate difficult if that happens.

Generally, I'm feeling somewhat safe about NO, but I am open to being proved wrong.

I seriously doubt Vance is getting kicked and have bet quite a bit against that. But I do think this market will be a no.

Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?

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