Will the Houthis successfully attack a U.S. or allied warship in 2024?
15
64
1k
2025
38%
chance

This market will resolve YES if it is credibly reported by a major news agency, or the U.S. or an allied government, that the Houthis successfully attacked a U.S. or allied warship before 2025. If not, this market will resolve NO.

A successful attack means damage was caused to the ship, even minor, directly because of a Houthi attack. An ally is defined as any member of Operation Prosperity Guardian. A warship is defined as a countries combat vessel that has the primary purpose of naval warfare. If a ship is damaged because it's own weapon misfired while trying to intercept a Houthi missile, it wouldn't count, because it's not directly from the attack. If a Houthi missile explodes near a ship and causes only superficial damage, it counts because that is damage.

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