Trump's bond that was previously due March 25th has been extended 10 days until April 4th, and reduced to 175 million. Context from the NY Times:
The former president must post a bond of $175 million within 10 days as he appeals the $454 million judgment against him.
This market resolves to the first option if Trump makes the full bond, the second if the bond is waived/significantly reduced/postponed again, and the third if the deadline stands and he fails to post bond. The "other" option exists to cover any unknown scenarios outside those, and should resolve "no" in most circumstances.
Additional context:
The ruling by a five-judge panel of appellate court judges is a crucial and unexpected victory for the former president, potentially staving off a looming financial disaster. Had the court denied his request — and had he failed to obtain the full bond — Mr. Trump was at risk of losing control over his bank accounts and, eventually, even some of his marquee properties.
Mr. Trump has 10 days to obtain the bond, and two people with knowledge of his finances said he should be able to secure it by then.
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Trump’s statement to reporters also claims he will have the bond “very quickly”
@CharlieBauer not sure how he could say anything else, regardless of the real situation. But more widely, "what Trump claims" rarely sheds direct light on the truth.
Despite that, I'd guess he can likely make such a bond. I'll bet NO at the current odds though.