Will Bitcoin ETF approvals be a "sell the news" event?

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resolved Jan 10

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This question will resolve YES if the price of Bitcoin drops more than 2% in the first hour after the first Bitcoin ETF is given final approval. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

The starting time of this hour window will be the closest minute preceeding the first credible news report or X post announcing the approval(s).

Final approval is defined as overcoming every hurdle in the regulatory approval process. If it is widely reported as being "approved", it will count.

Market end date will be extended if necessary.

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@mint Can resolve NO
1 Hour +0.02%

95 minutes +1.46%

bought Ṁ50 of NO

This is using the time of the first tweet searchable that tweeted the approval:

bought Ṁ150 of NO

Traders, now that the first BTC ETF was approved, you are welcome to help me find the first tweet or credible news report announcing it, so that the time window can be established. I found this one, but based on the account I am guessing it was discovered even earlier. Share your thoughts in this comment chain.

predicted NO

@mint I don't think there is any 1 hour period that's plausible where Bitcoin dropped 2%.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Is this already No?

@riverwalk3 Seems it! Not much movement, yesterday kinda crapped on any "event" since it kind of happened yesterday than corrected back essentially.

bought Ṁ70 of YES

😂😂

sold Ṁ102 of YES

FALSE ALARM ; ACCOUNT HACKED

bought Ṁ100 of YES

For Historical Purpose:

If ETFs are approved, my expectation would be that some uninformed traders buy and make one final top, and then there is a massive crash that starts a steep crash to $30,000 or $20,000 over the next few months, as the redemptions from the GBTC fund pour in. It's almost certain that if ETFs are approved, the redemptions will be in cash, and even if they aren't, most of the buyers who closed the discount will be selling to lock in their arbitrage.

If ETFs aren't approved, then I think the outlook is somewhat better, with prices slowly trending down and delaying the crash until a "sell the news" on the halving day.

I mean, I expect the price to spike after the announcement, and then drop later, so I would be selling in response to the news, just not in a 1 hour window.

predicted NO

@mint can you clarify if the 2% drop is relative to peak within the hour or relative to price at the start of the hour?

@GustavoMafra good question. As stated before, it's the price change from the beginning of the window to the end of the window. Whatever happens in the middle doesn't matter.