Will AWS have a major outage in 2024?

AWS has had atleast one major outage that took down apps across the Internet in 3 of the last 4 years. Will it happen again in 2024?

More specifically, if one or more AWS service goes down in atleast one major geographical region, and it has major implications across the Internet, this question will resolve YES. Major implications would be apps in unrelated categories not functioning properly for thousands of average users for a non-negligable amount of time. If not, this question resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.

Here are examples from the past 4 years that would count:

Please ask any clarifying questions. I won't trade in this market.

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