This market will resolve to the total amount of snow that falls on Central Park, New York on January 15th through 17th, 2024. The resolution source is the NWS Daily Climate Report for Central Park: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx. Please note the minimum value is inclusive (if 2 inches falls, 2-4 resolves YES, 1-2 resolves NO).
If it begins looks like more than 6 inches are possible, I will add more buckets above 6 following the same pattern (6-8, 8-10, etc). Thus, if you think 6+ is possible, bet on "Other" for now. If both days have a trace, T+T=T.
Background: A major winter storm may hit during this time frame, with the main U.S. weather model forecasting jackpot zones of 12-16 inches, while the main European model currently shows 0 inches.
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3.00@traders, important update. The point of this market was to capture the total amount of snow that would fall during the snow storm. I am still experimenting with these snowfall markets. The timing of the storm has now changed and snow may fall on the 15th as well. I have decided to edit the title and description to include the 15th, as I believe that was the sprit of this market.
That being said (and I realize there is only 2 of you), if you specifically bet in this market because the 15th was excluded, I will cash your position out at no loss to you as long as you comment here before snow starts to fall.
Any of my future snow storm markets will contain a provision allowing for date adjustments if the storm timing changes, but it's still materially the same storm.
@mint I'm fine with the change this time (no need to cash me out).
However, I think you should be careful with changes like this.
In general a bettor could have made their bets based on the specific dates - their theory could have been the storm will shift and arrive earlier or end later than initial report.
@bluefrog You are completely right. It's a tough issue, and I agree with you that people could definitely bet based on the timing. I'm going to think about it more, but in the future I plan to avoid this by specifying wider timeframes, or that it must be associated with a certain storm. Overall, I think most people care more about how much snow a winter storms produces (and would want to bet on that and track the models as the day goes on), not whether that snow happens with X window.