35% chance. [image]This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

71% chance. I am talking about the traditional ones organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates. If, for some reason, they elected not to, but a different organization (e.g. the League of Women Voters) stepped in, I would resolve that as YES if the debates are materially similar in structure and timing. While I think it'd be neat if third parties actually made it onto the stage for once, I will resolve this NO if either of the red or blue team's nominee is absent. I will not be betting on this market.