Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle?

Question

I am part of the USA team selection test cycle for the 68th IMO. The relevant contests for this market are TST Day 1, TST Day 2, RMM Day 1, APMO, USAMO Day 1, and USAMO Day 2. Here are some past contest results:

JMO 2026 (first time making any olympiad): 627 677

TSTST 2026: 700 007 700

Getting swept means scoring a 0, 1, or 2 on every problem. A score of 5, 6, or 7 counts as a solve. I like MMP and almost always try using it on a geometry problem.

Making RMM or IMO is basically guaranteed to resolve no. I will try my best on every exam.

Update 2026-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Achieving 007 requires scoring exactly 0, 0, 7 on a contest day, rather than any sweep-sweep-solve combination (e.g., [0-2] [0-2] [5-7]).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, USAMO Gold Medal, followed by Get swept on some day and Solve a problem using MMP in some form are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Aug 19, 2026).

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