Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
460
1kṀ120k
resolved Nov 9
Resolved
YES
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According to Bloomberg, Trump has 73,187,135 votes. So, 1,036,841 more are needed. In California alone, 3,300,436 votes are expected. [image]

In 2020, Donald Trump got 74,223,975 votes.

In 2024 will Donald Trump get 74,223,976 or more votes?

Resolves to the NYT vote tally

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Now resolvable, NYT count is currently at 74,229,489

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

@mattyb @Manifold

Resolves YES

sold Ṁ12 NO

@bagelfan source? AP and NYT are both 73.3M

@mattyb Bloomberg

@mattyb Quick close it so manifold doesn't lose money!

@bagelfan I've already put my entire sweeps balance into YES lmao... I'd put more

@benshindel this dropped to like 88% for no reason a day ago

bought 𝕊50.00 YES

@bagelfan tell the NYT to get faster, or buy me a terminal lol

@mattyb Oh whoops didn't see that line in the desc, sorry for impatience!

bought 𝕊3.00 YES

According to Bloomberg, Trump has 73,187,135 votes. So, 1,036,841 more are needed. In California alone, 3,300,436 votes are expected.

Very interesting market. What % of new voters would have to be GOP to make up for the mortality gap?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

@ScottSupak Not only that, in 2020 many states extended early voting and expanded vote-by-mail eligibility. Some have become more restrictive in 2024.

bought 𝕊100.00 YES

@ScottSupak this was a stupid argument from the moment people first began making it (which was during the pandemic.)

@DavidBolin Cool! Keep telling people not to get vaccinated then!

@ScottSupak I don't "tell" people that. It definitely does not matter at this point whether they do or not though.

@DavidBolin There will be a measles market for next year at Kalshi. Take my money.

There will also be ACA repeal markets.

Imagine how many more votes Trump would've gotten if death rates due to policy choices in red areas were as low as they are in blue areas.

Yes, 0.3%

Not enough to make any difference.

@ScottSupak You don't have to imagine, you can calculate it pretty exactly and it is about 0.3%

@DavidBolin not at the national level, sure. But go ahead and tell me that in the future, especially with bird flu looming, tumbling vax rates for measles, etc, that people who openly and proudly reject science aren't going to die at higher and higher rates and that that won't matter in state, district, and local races.

I'll be off worrying about how to save my wife from dying of her preexisting condition when they repeal the ACA.

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