Now resolvable, NYT count is currently at 74,229,489

@mattyb @Manifold

@bagelfan yep

@mattyb @Manifold

Resolves YES

@bagelfan source? AP and NYT are both 73.3M

@mattyb Bloomberg

@mattyb Quick close it so manifold doesn't lose money!

@bagelfan I've already put my entire sweeps balance into YES lmao... I'd put more

@benshindel this dropped to like 88% for no reason a day ago

@bagelfan tell the NYT to get faster, or buy me a terminal lol

@mattyb Oh whoops didn't see that line in the desc, sorry for impatience!

According to Bloomberg, Trump has 73,187,135 votes. So, 1,036,841 more are needed. In California alone, 3,300,436 votes are expected.

Very interesting market. What % of new voters would have to be GOP to make up for the mortality gap?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

@ScottSupak Not only that, in 2020 many states extended early voting and expanded vote-by-mail eligibility. Some have become more restrictive in 2024.

@ScottSupak this was a stupid argument from the moment people first began making it (which was during the pandemic.)

@DavidBolin Cool! Keep telling people not to get vaccinated then!

@ScottSupak I don't "tell" people that. It definitely does not matter at this point whether they do or not though.

@DavidBolin There will be a measles market for next year at Kalshi. Take my money.

There will also be ACA repeal markets.

Imagine how many more votes Trump would've gotten if death rates due to policy choices in red areas were as low as they are in blue areas.

Yes, 0.3%

Not enough to make any difference.

@ScottSupak You don't have to imagine, you can calculate it pretty exactly and it is about 0.3%

@DavidBolin not at the national level, sure. But go ahead and tell me that in the future, especially with bird flu looming, tumbling vax rates for measles, etc, that people who openly and proudly reject science aren't going to die at higher and higher rates and that that won't matter in state, district, and local races.

I'll be off worrying about how to save my wife from dying of her preexisting condition when they repeal the ACA.

upgraded!