Will the 2024 Super Bowl be the most watched of all time? 🏈🏆📺
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resolved Feb 13
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YES

The most viewed NFL championship game of all time was 2015’s Super Bowl XLIX, where 114.8M people watched the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks. The second most viewed Super Bowl was last year (2023) with 113.0 viewers [more data].

Be it the Taylor Swift effect, or people really excited to see Usher, will 2024 set a new record for Super Bowl viewership?

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Whyyy did I bet against Taylor. What was I thinking

@TiredCliche Don't know why people still do this

@Fedor was probably drunk or something. I'm sorry, Taylor. Please forgive me (she wont)

bought Ṁ10,000 YES

@travis CBS said it themselves, and this is from Nielsen. I’ll take this as being as good as we’ll get.

This is a binary, we can reopen this if we need to

@mattyb Nielsen Fast Data has been lower the past 3 years, it usually misses data from channels like the 4k specific channels and Nickelodeon is not on any fast data info that I see. (though bunch of Nickelodeon is probably duplicate household since kids watch that and adults watch CBS)

Your pretty much safe!

bought Ṁ500 YES

https://twitter.com/fangsbites/status/1757233305408180688

Seems like it's set, although easy enough to wait for the round of headlines to confirm (as there are different ways of interpreting the numbers). But I assume this is the official CBS statement.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13075049/The-Taylor-Swift-effect-Super-Bowl-2024-watched-39-MILLION-viewers.html

“The figures mean the 2024 Super Bowl was the highest Super Bowl TV viewership in the past six years and the third most viewed of all time. ”

So, NO not highest ever

sold Ṁ1 NO

@SusanneinFrance my worry is that Samba TV only looks at a smaller subset of viewership, only on TVs. I feel like a lot of people watch on their phones + computers these days (see this year old article on how the counting went in 2023). Samba TV was first then too, and very low.

I’m going to leave the market open until we have another report here. I may reference this site which tries to compute a total using all of the reporting methods, and hopefully this isn’t controversial in the end 😬.

@mattyb Yeah the proper more "official" numbers from Nielsen aren't out yet, but they're expected fairly soon (e.g. https://x.com/Ourand_Puck/status/1757198295590731798?s=20 ). When they drop, there will be a big round of headlines, so I think the # will be fairly clear (e.g. THR headline from last year, but all the outlets had an article at about the same time https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/super-bowl-lvii-tv-ratings-sunday-feb-12-2023-1235324162/ ). (The only complication is last year they revised the numbers two months later, but I assume you're not trying to catch that).

so TLDR there should be a single "consensus" number that the major outlets basically all agree on, and that isn't out yet. (it's totally reasonable to use an alternative definition, but I expect "the headlines" will basically all agree on the result here)

@Ziddletwix for extra context, if you back to Feb 13 last year, basically every outlet publishes a story quoting the same # of 113M https://deadline.com/2023/02/super-bowl-lvii-philadelphia-eagles-kansas-city-chiefs-ratings-fox-1235258307/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/super-bowl-lvii-tv-ratings-sunday-feb-12-2023-1235324162/

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35654452/super-bowl-lvii-third-most-watched-113-million-viewers

etc easy enough to find.

(Awkward that they actually revised this number in May, but whatever you can't control that)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13075049/The-Taylor-Swift-effect-Super-Bowl-2024-watched-39-MILLION-viewers.html

Yesterday viewership up 6% from last year but only third highest ever

“The figures mean the 2024 Super Bowl was the highest Super Bowl TV viewership in the past six years and the third most viewed of all time. ”

@SusanneinFrance

“The figures mean the 2024 Super Bowl was the highest Super Bowl TV viewership in the past six years and the third most viewed of all time. ”

So, NO not highest ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/02/12/did-the-super-bowl-set-a-ratings-record-heres-what-it-will-have-to-beat/

Per above we can expect numbers by mid-afternoon the day after the game … (has anyone seen them?)

https://3downnation.com/2024/02/12/kansas-city-chiefs-taylor-swift-power-super-bowl-lviii-to-canadian-viewership-record/

is anyone brave enough to buy YES based on the correlation with Canadian viewership???

lions ravens is the bowl everyone wanted, this is not gonna be that watched. none of you know ball tbh

@BaboonDude At some point people are interested in hate watching as well.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

A loooot of "opinionated" people boycotted Bud Light over nothing. I can absolutely see them doing the same for the Superbowl.

predicted NO

@RyanBrown What would be the boycott in this case? I'm out of the loop

predicted NO

@drewmummy people angry about Taylor Swift not watching the Superbowl.