Billboard’s Hot 100 edition are weekly leaderboards with a Saturday date, and there are 2 Saturday’s at the end of this month: the 23rd and the 30th.
Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year (seen below and here). Will she do it again this year?
Can Mariah Carey get her 6th consecutive #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before December?
Resolves NO on December 1st.
1,000
3.00@beevoid What a shit show. Can you tell me more about Kalshi? Do they typically have non-misleading descriptions?
This is a tangent, but Kalshi and every other prediction platform has the same problems with accidentally misleading or ambiguous questions. E.g. they resolved a market on whether Biden would enact forgiveness for student loans NO, because of a technicality (it wasn't by executive action or legislation) - https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsdebt/student-debt-forgiveness-via-bill-or-executive-order-please-see-rules (The clarification was added to the title later)
The sweepstakes market for this question will be resolved per the title which states whether or not she will reach #1 in November.
The inaccurate context accidentally provided by the creator in the description is not relevant to the criteria. That said, while people are expected to do their own research before participating, we recognised some people were misled and will look to compensate sweepstakes yes holders who entered the market prior to clarification. To prevent this from reoccurring in the future we will probably ask creators to include any context as a pinned comment rather than as part of the description where it can be confused with the criteria.
@Manifold Is the resolution for the mana market still undecided? If not N/A, will there be any compensation for mana losses?
I think there is some case to N/A based on the questions in the description:
Will she do it again this year?
Can Mariah Carey get her 6th consecutive #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before December?
These aren't added context but rather revisions/rewording of the question, and both are invalid given that "again" and "consecutive #1 before December" aren't possible.
IMO this is a good solution if and only if previous YES holders (from before the revelation that the description was wrong) are refunded.
The description being wrong is very bad for just resolving according to the title, and it's not really just "context" that's wrong, because the way the question is phrased ("Will she do it again this year?") is dependent on the assumption that it did happen before, which was wrong. And it points to a data source (Wikipedia) that, if misinterpreted as stated, would probably indicate a YES again this year.
But on the other hand we don't want the resolution to unfairly punish anyone who already bet no because they correctly thought it wouldn't be number one that early.
The fairest thing for traders is to make everyone whole - refund YES purchases made before the error was discovered, while still paying out those who had bought NO. The second best thing would be N/A, imo.
@Manifold I was a previous YES holder before clarification that sold after clarification, at a significant loss—will I still be made whole?
The creator of this market has given incorrect context, which could've come from a misinterpretation of the information presented in the chart. The dates listed in the chart are debut dates, and the numbers on the right are peak chart positions, not the position the song was at during the debut date. When you visit the billboard archives cited by Wikipedia, they show the actual date at which the song reached the peak chart position listed, and so far this has only occurred in December and January. The statement "Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year" is false. The song has never reached #1 in November before.
Not cool.
@10thOfficial i can n/a it, but im the #2 YES holder so i figure that will make me look even worse that i already do. i’m sorry
@mattyb I'm at fault too so I'm not quite sure how I feel right now. I'm going to have a think about it.